Steel & Aluminum

RBC, TD, and CIBC reported third-quarter profits above analyst estimates. RBC CEO Dave McKay said more than 80% of Canadian exports remain duty-free and the average effective tariff rate is approximately 6%. TD said it holds about C$500 million in reserves for policy and trade risks.

Oxford Economics estimates the latest U.S. tariff escalation and Canadian counter-tariffs could leave Canada's real GDP 0.3 percentage points below its August baseline in 2027 and lift consumer prices by 0.3 percentage points. The forecast is an estimate, not an observed result.

Canada's real GDP grew 0.8% in the second quarter of 2026, equivalent to a 3.3% annualized rate and the strongest quarterly expansion since 2023. Final domestic demand rose 1.0%, June GDP increased 0.3%, and Statistics Canada's preliminary estimate indicated little change in July.

After trade talks collapsed and U.S. Section 338 tariffs took effect, Ottawa announced 15–50% counter-tariffs on approximately 874 U.S. products, effective September 8, 2026. Targets include steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics.

Following the collapse of trade talks on August 21, Trump announced tariffs on Canadian automobiles and auto parts will rise from 25% to 50% on January 1, 2027. He also threatened to raise steel tariffs further. Carney called the U.S. terms 'unfair and uneconomic' and suspended negotiations.

Alongside its counter-tariff announcement, the Carney government indicated it would lift select tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, consumer goods, and machinery effective September 1, as a negotiating gesture. Carney noted approximately 85% of bilateral trade is already tariff-free. The selective easing is separate from the broader September 8 counter-tariff package, which remains on track.

USTR imposed a 10% tariff on Canadian goods under Section 301, citing failure to enforce forced labor import prohibitions. Not Canada-specific — 60 countries affected. USMCA-compliant goods are exempt.

At the mandatory six-year joint review, the U.S. declined to confirm a 16-year extension of CUSMA/USMCA. The agreement remains in force but faces annual reviews until 2036. Canada has not begun substantive text-based negotiations with the U.S.

The Supreme Court held that IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs, invalidating the legal basis for the 25–35% broad tariffs on Canadian goods that had been in force since February 2025. CBP stopped collecting IEEPA tariffs on February 24. Importers became eligible for refunds.

The Trump administration doubled Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50%, effective immediately. Canada remains the largest foreign supplier of both metals to the U.S.