Dashboard / Automotive
Industry Report — data through Sep 1, 2026

Automotive

Storm

Vehicle manufacturing, parts production, and cross-border supply chains. Canada and the U.S. share deeply integrated auto production — parts cross the border up to eight times during assembly.

Impact
5/5
Significant active measures
Escalation risk
5/5
Major measures pending
Adaptability
2/5
Deeply integrated supply chains
Price risk
5/5
Costs flowing to consumers

The most severely affected industry. A 25% Section 232 tariff on non-CUSMA content has been in force since April 2025. In August 2026, Section 338 added a separate 50% tariff on Canadian motor vehicles. The Big Three have idled Canadian production lines. Bilateral auto negotiations are ongoing but unresolved.

In Force

Measures currently active since the 2025 escalation.

Section 232 Tariff on Automobiles (25% on non-CUSMA content)

In Force
Rate 25% on non-U.S. content
Baseline 0% (CUSMA-compliant) / 2.5% (non-compliant)
Products Passenger vehicles, light trucks, auto parts
Effective Apr 3, 2025
Exemptions CUSMA-compliant vehicles: 25% applies only to non-U.S. content portion. CUSMA-compliant auto parts temporarily exempt pending Commerce Dept process.
CUSMA Partial CUSMA exemption — tariff applies to non-U.S. content of qualifying vehicles

Section 232 national security authority. The non-U.S. content rule creates complex compliance calculations for manufacturers with multi-country supply chains.

10% Global Tariff on Non-CUSMA Goods

In Force
Rate 10%
Baseline 0%
Products All Canadian goods not qualifying for CUSMA preferential treatment
Effective Feb 24, 2026
Exemptions CUSMA-compliant goods are exempt
CUSMA Replaces IEEPA tariffs after Supreme Court ruling. CUSMA compliance is the dividing line.

Replaced the IEEPA 25%/10% tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court in February 2026. Lower rate but broader legal footing. Businesses that paid IEEPA tariffs between Feb 2025 and Feb 2026 became eligible for refunds.

Section 338 Tariff — Dairy, Alcohol, and Motor Vehicles (50%)

In Force
Rate 50%
Baseline Various (0% to 25%)
Products Dairy products, alcoholic beverages, motor vehicles, plus cement, plywood, furniture, hockey sticks, and others
Effective Aug 22, 2026
Exemptions None. Applies even to USMCA-qualifying goods.
CUSMA Overrides USMCA preferential treatment for covered products

First use of Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930. Three separate proclamations targeting dairy (quotas), alcohol (provincial restrictions), and motor vehicles (retaliatory tariffs). Brief 3-day pause Aug 19–22 after announced deal, which collapsed. Total exposure ~$20B, covering ~5.2% of U.S. imports from Canada.

Forecast

Threatened, announced, or scheduled — not yet in force.

Section 232 — 50% Auto and Steel Tariff Increase (Jan 1, 2027 Threat)

Threatened
Rate 50% (up from current 25% on autos, 50% on steel)
Baseline 25% on non-U.S. auto content (current); 50% steel (current)
Products Passenger vehicles, light trucks, auto parts; steel and aluminum
Effective Jan 1, 2027
CUSMA Would override CUSMA content rules for automotive

Trump announced August 24, 2026 that tariffs on Canadian automobiles, auto parts, and steel will rise to 50% on January 1, 2027. The auto rate increase (from 25%) would make Canadian assembly largely unviable. Stellantis is reportedly considering closure of its Brampton Assembly Plant. Announced after trade talks collapsed on August 21.

CUSMA/USMCA Joint Review — U.S. Declines to Extend

Under Negotiation
Products All goods covered by CUSMA/USMCA
CUSMA The agreement itself is under review. U.S. declined 16-year extension, triggering annual reviews until 2036 expiry.

On July 1, 2026, the U.S. declined to confirm extension. Agreement remains fully in force but faces annual review. Canada has not yet begun substantive text-based negotiations with the U.S. This creates structural uncertainty for all cross-border trade.

Canadian Response

Actions Canada has taken or is pursuing.

Canadian Response

Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Steel, Aluminum, and Consumer Goods (C$29.8B)

Retaliation

Canada imposed 25% counter-tariffs on C$29.8 billion of U.S. goods including steel, aluminum, orange juice, bourbon, and household appliances. Product list designed to target politically sensitive U.S. states.

Announced Mar 4, 2025
Status Modified
Responds to Section 232 Tariff on Steel and Aluminum (25%, then 50%), IEEPA Tariff on Canadian Goods (Struck Down)
Canadian Response

Retaliatory Tariffs on $27.6B of U.S. Goods (September 2026)

Retaliation

Canada announced 15–50% counter-tariffs on $27.6 billion of U.S. imports effective September 8, 2026, covering approximately 874 tariff items. Dollar-for-dollar match to U.S. Section 338 tariffs.

Announced Aug 25, 2026
Status Announced
Responds to Section 338 Tariff — Dairy, Alcohol, and Motor Vehicles (50%)
Canadian Response

Auto Sector Bilateral Negotiations

Negotiation

Ongoing bilateral discussions focused on preserving integrated North American auto manufacturing. Canada seeking sector-specific tariff relief. Daily discussions between Carney and Trump officials intensified in August 2026.

Announced Apr 15, 2025
Status Under Negotiation
Responds to Section 232 Tariff on Automobiles (25% on non-CUSMA content), Section 338 Tariff — Dairy, Alcohol, and Motor Vehicles (50%)

Latest News

Aug 30, 2026 · Unifor
Unifor Ratifies GM Deal Covering 4,600 Ontario Auto Workers

Unifor members ratified three-year agreements covering more than 4,600 workers at four Ontario GM facilities. The contracts secure new investment in Oshawa and St. Catharines, while providing temporary income protection—but no new production commitment—for the idled CAMI plant.

Aug 29, 2026 · Globe and Mail / CBC News
Canadian Banks Beat Q3 Estimates; RBC Cites Limited Tariff Exposure

RBC, TD, and CIBC reported third-quarter profits above analyst estimates. RBC CEO Dave McKay said more than 80% of Canadian exports remain duty-free and the average effective tariff rate is approximately 6%. TD said it holds about C$500 million in reserves for policy and trade risks.

Aug 28, 2026 · Oxford Economics
Oxford Economics: Latest Tariff Escalation Could Cut Canada's 2027 GDP by 0.3 Points

Oxford Economics estimates the latest U.S. tariff escalation and Canadian counter-tariffs could leave Canada's real GDP 0.3 percentage points below its August baseline in 2027 and lift consumer prices by 0.3 percentage points. The forecast is an estimate, not an observed result.

Aug 28, 2026 · Statistics Canada
Canada's Q2 GDP Grew 3.3% Annualized — Strongest Since 2023 — As Trade War Escalated

Canada's real GDP grew 0.8% in the second quarter of 2026, equivalent to a 3.3% annualized rate and the strongest quarterly expansion since 2023. Final domestic demand rose 1.0%, June GDP increased 0.3%, and Statistics Canada's preliminary estimate indicated little change in July.

Aug 26, 2026 · Reuters
Automakers Face Threat of 50% U.S. Tariffs on Canadian Vehicles in January

Automakers are preparing for U.S. tariffs on Canadian vehicles and parts to rise from 25% to 50% on January 1, 2027 if no agreement is reached. Reuters reported that Canadian-built vehicles represented about 6% of U.S. sales in 2025, while industry sources said the January deadline may leave room for further negotiations.

Aug 25, 2026 · CBC News / Washington Post / Global NewsUpdate
Canada Announces Retaliatory Tariffs on $27.6B of U.S. Goods

After trade talks collapsed and U.S. Section 338 tariffs took effect, Ottawa announced 15–50% counter-tariffs on approximately 874 U.S. products, effective September 8, 2026. Targets include steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics.

Aug 24, 2026 · Fox Business / CNBC / Al JazeeraUpdate
Trump Threatens 50% Tariffs on Canadian Autos and Steel from January 2027

Following the collapse of trade talks on August 21, Trump announced tariffs on Canadian automobiles and auto parts will rise from 25% to 50% on January 1, 2027. He also threatened to raise steel tariffs further. Carney called the U.S. terms 'unfair and uneconomic' and suspended negotiations.

Aug 22, 2026 · CBC News / Prime Minister's Office
Canada Lifts Some Import Tariffs on U.S. Goods in Bid to Restart Trade Talks

Alongside its counter-tariff announcement, the Carney government indicated it would lift select tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, consumer goods, and machinery effective September 1, as a negotiating gesture. Carney noted approximately 85% of bilateral trade is already tariff-free. The selective easing is separate from the broader September 8 counter-tariff package, which remains on track.

Aug 22, 2026 · Washington Post / ReutersUpdate
U.S. Section 338 Tariffs Take Effect After Trade Deal Collapses

50% Section 338 tariffs on Canadian dairy, alcohol, and motor vehicles took effect after a brief 3-day pause. First use of Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930. Trade talks between Carney and Trump officials collapsed, ending the pause.

Aug 14, 2026 · UniforUpdate
Unifor Says Stellantis Is Considering Sale or Closure of Brampton Plant

Unifor said Stellantis informed the union on August 12 that it intended to discuss a potential sale of the idled Brampton Assembly Plant with another company. Stellantis said it remained focused on finding a sustainable manufacturing solution; no sale or closure had been confirmed.

Jul 1, 2026 · White & Case / USTRUpdate
U.S. Declines to Extend CUSMA, Triggering Annual Review Process

At the mandatory six-year joint review, the U.S. declined to confirm a 16-year extension of CUSMA/USMCA. The agreement remains in force but faces annual reviews until 2036. Canada has not begun substantive text-based negotiations with the U.S.

Feb 1, 2026 · Multiple / Wikipedia timelineUpdate
U.S. Supreme Court Rules IEEPA Cannot Be Used to Impose Tariffs

The Supreme Court held that IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs, invalidating the legal basis for the 25–35% broad tariffs on Canadian goods that had been in force since February 2025. CBP stopped collecting IEEPA tariffs on February 24. Importers became eligible for refunds.

Apr 3, 2025 · Globe and Mail / Toronto StarUpdate

25% Auto Tariff Takes Effect, Ontario Plants Begin Production Halts

The 25% Section 232 tariff on imported automobiles officially took effect. GM Oshawa and Stellantis Windsor subsequently announced temporary production halts affecting thousands of workers, citing tariff uncertainty making production planning impossible.

Apr 3, 2025 · Associated PressUpdate
25% Auto Tariff Takes Effect; Stellantis Pauses Windsor Production

The 25% Section 232 tariff on imported automobiles took effect. Stellantis then paused production at its Windsor, Ontario, assembly plant for two weeks, citing the tariff and related changes to North American production.

Consumer Impact

Related product categories and price pressure.

Vehicles
Trend rising
YoY +8.5%
Exposure high
Future increasing