Agriculture

RBC, TD, and CIBC reported third-quarter profits above analyst estimates. RBC CEO Dave McKay said more than 80% of Canadian exports remain duty-free and the average effective tariff rate is approximately 6%. TD said it holds about C$500 million in reserves for policy and trade risks.

Oxford Economics estimates the latest U.S. tariff escalation and Canadian counter-tariffs could leave Canada's real GDP 0.3 percentage points below its August baseline in 2027 and lift consumer prices by 0.3 percentage points. The forecast is an estimate, not an observed result.

Canada's real GDP grew 0.8% in the second quarter of 2026, equivalent to a 3.3% annualized rate and the strongest quarterly expansion since 2023. Final domestic demand rose 1.0%, June GDP increased 0.3%, and Statistics Canada's preliminary estimate indicated little change in July.

After trade talks collapsed and U.S. Section 338 tariffs took effect, Ottawa announced 15–50% counter-tariffs on approximately 874 U.S. products, effective September 8, 2026. Targets include steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics.

Alongside its counter-tariff announcement, the Carney government indicated it would lift select tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, consumer goods, and machinery effective September 1, as a negotiating gesture. Carney noted approximately 85% of bilateral trade is already tariff-free. The selective easing is separate from the broader September 8 counter-tariff package, which remains on track.

50% Section 338 tariffs on Canadian dairy, alcohol, and motor vehicles took effect after a brief 3-day pause. First use of Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930. Trade talks between Carney and Trump officials collapsed, ending the pause.

USTR imposed a 10% tariff on Canadian goods under Section 301, citing failure to enforce forced labor import prohibitions. Not Canada-specific — 60 countries affected. USMCA-compliant goods are exempt.

Canada's Food Price Report projects 4–6% food price increases in 2026, with an average family of four spending up to $994 more annually. Tariffs and counter-tariffs are a significant driver. Tomato prices surged 45% YoY. Beef, chicken, and vegetables lead increases.

At the mandatory six-year joint review, the U.S. declined to confirm a 16-year extension of CUSMA/USMCA. The agreement remains in force but faces annual reviews until 2036. Canada has not begun substantive text-based negotiations with the U.S.

The Supreme Court held that IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs, invalidating the legal basis for the 25–35% broad tariffs on Canadian goods that had been in force since February 2025. CBP stopped collecting IEEPA tariffs on February 24. Importers became eligible for refunds.